Senior Staff Writer/Editor/Host
It is bound to happen. We, as Tennessee fans, will talk ourselves into the College Football Playoff being a realistic possibility. Maybe it happens as soon as the Vols inevitably, and hopefully, beat Furman by 30-plus points. So, we may as well examine the possibility. Just how good would Tennessee have to be this season to make the College Football Playoff?
Obviously, a lot will depend on how the rest of the country performs, and the newly introduced nine-game SEC schedule will have a significant impact not just on Tennessee and the SEC, but on the playoff as a whole.
Would the committee opt to take a 9-3 Texas over a 10-2 or 11-1 team from a lower-tier conference? That is yet to be seen.
But we can look at last season's field and get a good baseline for just how good Tennessee would have to be to be considered a legitimate playoff contender.
Last season, no team made the playoffs with a record worse than 10-2. As mentioned earlier, that could change depending on a team’s strength of schedule and strength of record.
For Tennessee, 9-3 would likely leave the Vols sweating on Selection Day, but depending on where those losses came and who they came against, they would still have a puncher’s chance. 10-2 and Tennessee is sweating a lot less, and of course, 11-1 or 12-0 (I’m not saying that’s realistic at all) and you’re in.
As far as total offensive yards go, the average playoff team accumulated 6,015 yards on the season, with an average national ranking of 33.6. Had Tennessee made the playoff, the Vols’ 6,062 total yards would have ranked second among the 12 playoff teams and seventh nationally.
In terms of points per game, the average playoff team scored 33.9 points per game, with an average national ranking of 27.6. Had the Vols made the playoff, Tennessee’s 39.8 points per game would have ranked second among the 12 playoff teams and sixth nationally.
Switching gears to the defensive side of the ball, the average playoff team allowed 4,132 total yards on the season, which equated to an average national ranking of 17.4. Tennessee, meanwhile, allowed 5,163 total yards, ranking 91st nationally. Had the Vols made the playoff, that mark would have been the worst among the 12 teams in the field.
Scoring defense is more of the same, as the average points per game allowed was 16.7 with an average rank of 17.08. Had Tennessee made the field, its 28.8 points per game allowed would’ve ranked second-worst in the playoff. It also ranked 91st nationally.
Turnover margin, however, tells a much different story. The average playoff team ranked 47th nationally in turnover margin, while Tennessee finished 45th. Had the Vols made the playoff, their turnover margin would have ranked seventh among the 12 teams in the field.
Moving forward to strength of schedule, which can be just as important as a team’s overall record, the average playoff team had a strength of schedule ranking of 26th nationally. The easiest schedule among the 12 playoff teams ranked 80th, meaning Tennessee’s 78th-ranked strength of schedule would have been the second-easiest in the field.
Looking at those numbers, it’s reasonable to believe that a significant improvement defensively could have changed Tennessee’s record and put the Vols in legitimate playoff contention.
Now, those statistics certainly aren’t the end-all, be-all. However, they give us something to compare Tennessee to and, more importantly, something for the Vols to strive toward.
If Tennessee wants to enter the upcoming postseason feeling good about the Big Orange’s playoff chances, a good benchmark would be to finish in the top 35 nationally in total offense, top 18 in total defense, top 28 in scoring offense, top 18 in scoring defense and, at an absolute minimum, inside the top 30 in strength of schedule.
In other words, the Vols don’t have to take some massive leap to reach the level of a playoff-caliber team. Improvements on defense, and yes, even on offense, are necessary, but nothing that seems unrealistic. Tennessee has to win the close games. Last season, the Vols failed to do so against Georgia and Oklahoma.
The playoff is within reach. We’ll see if the Vols can grab it.
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